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  18.03.2015 - Uncertainty in climate modeling of precipitation: from data to downscaling

Seminario del dr. Jost von Hardenberg del CNR-ISAC Torino.

Uncertainty in climate modeling of precipitation: from data to downscaling

ore 11.00
Sala Biblioteca I° Piano
Istituto ISAC-CNR
str. prov. Lecce - Monteroni, km 1.2 - 73100 Lecce


Precipitation is one of the most challenging variables both to measure and to model, particularly in areas with complex orography. On the other hand the evaluation of impacts of climate change on ecosystems, on water resources and on hydrological risks and the modeling of small-scale land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks require climate projections at high spatial resolution, a good representation of precipitation extremes and an evaluation of the associated uncertainty. This talk will discuss uncertainty and its propagation in the modeling chain from measurement 
data, to global and regional models and stochastic and dynamical downscaling, discussing applications to the Himalayan range and the Alps. I will discuss in particular results with the EC-Earth global
climate model and high-resolution dynamical downscaling with the WRF regional model.